COVID-19 : Mortality Accuracy Scenarios
Updated Post on August, 18, 2020 123 days after initial post
Here is a quick update after 4 months since my original post ... 33% or 1/3 of a calendar year has past.
For those who choose their sources of information carefully and remain open to multiple perspectives ... we have learned a lot over these past months ... most of which we suspected to be true early and time has confirmed those truths (increased confidence in our suspicions and clarity in our conclusions).
Just some of what we have learned and confirmed ....
Dishonesty Abounds
Inconsistency in Science (aka: yeah, more dishonesty)
Science is Precise ... Accepting and Ignoring Inaccuracies is Not Science
The shear number of inconsistencies and utter, blatant dishonesty by elected / appointed public servants and mainstream "news" media ... is why so many independent analysts, commentators and researchers have risen to the occasion ... in hopes of more honest, objective and science-based information being more clearly and consistently communicated to citizens of the United States and around the world.
More I could say ... but leaving it brief for now ... primary purpose of post is the visual of Mortality Accuracy Scenarios.
***
Original Post on April 17, 2020
Here is a quick view of how the accuracy of Cases and/or Deaths affect Mortality Rate.
This after both hearing and observing a number of conversations discussing how different reporting organizations may have different classification criteria (e.g., what deaths are considered to be caused by or related to COVID-19 confirmed or suspected infection).
Current Mortality Rate
As of April 17th, 2020, the CDC website displays the following stats for the United States:
Yesterday's Mortality Rate
As of April 16th, 2020, the CDC website displays the following stats for the United States:
Accuracy Scenarios
Here are some brief comments on scenarios that may affect the accuracy of the Mortality Rate and various models being used to inform decision making, by those citing cases and deaths as the rationale for various decisions:
Updated Post on August, 18, 2020 123 days after initial post
Here is a quick update after 4 months since my original post ... 33% or 1/3 of a calendar year has past.
For those who choose their sources of information carefully and remain open to multiple perspectives ... we have learned a lot over these past months ... most of which we suspected to be true early and time has confirmed those truths (increased confidence in our suspicions and clarity in our conclusions).
Just some of what we have learned and confirmed ....
Dishonesty Abounds
- elected and appointed public servants prioritize statements, recommendations and requirements (aka: mandates) based on benefits to themselves (self-interest over serving citizens ... and their political ideology over science)
- the term "science" is used dishonestly, in hopes to convince (aka: manipulate) citizens to believe their words / actions are credible
- "news" sources and "journalists" continue to demonstrate they have no morale foundation nor obligation to truth ... and will exploit and sensationalize anything that benefits their organization's political, social and financial objectives
- they also prioritize their content based on self-interest and political ideology over objective reporting and science
- avoid objective historical comparisons, e.g., 2020 COVID response /data ... compared to Influenza response / data in the past
- intentionally avoid regular updates on recovery-rates ... or report on inaccuracies and actual dates of death (from -vs- with)
- Avoiding the topic and realities of how government financial incentives for Medical Organizations to code (attribute) tests-as-positive, admittance-with-or-due-to-COVID and deaths-with-or-from-COVID ... is willingly opening the door wide to inaccuracies and fraud.
Inconsistency in Science (aka: yeah, more dishonesty)
- Masks Do Not Help -vs- Masks Are Required
- If masks, all of the sudden, do-help-in-a-scientific-measurable-way ... there would be requirements and specifications for the materials they are constructed from and how they are fitted and maintained
- If masks do-help-in-a-scientific-measurable-way ... COVID would not be a credible reason to release convicted criminals
- Social Distancing is a Must -vs- Unless it is a "Protest" They Favor
- I mean really ... just another example of intentional intellectual dishonesty ... there is no [ zero ] science to this claim
- This Corona-Virus prefers certain times of day to spread, watches the clock
- thus businesses and activities must close at specific [ arbitrary ] times of day
- This Corona-Virus is "scientifically" more active at churches or schools than at big-box-retailers, casinos or pot-shops
- the inconsistent and arbitrary approach to what is "essential" -vs- "non-essential" ... is yet another example of intentional intellectual dishonesty and a lack-of-science
Science is Precise ... Accepting and Ignoring Inaccuracies is Not Science
The shear number of inconsistencies and utter, blatant dishonesty by elected / appointed public servants and mainstream "news" media ... is why so many independent analysts, commentators and researchers have risen to the occasion ... in hopes of more honest, objective and science-based information being more clearly and consistently communicated to citizens of the United States and around the world.
More I could say ... but leaving it brief for now ... primary purpose of post is the visual of Mortality Accuracy Scenarios.
***
Original Post on April 17, 2020
Here is a quick view of how the accuracy of Cases and/or Deaths affect Mortality Rate.
This after both hearing and observing a number of conversations discussing how different reporting organizations may have different classification criteria (e.g., what deaths are considered to be caused by or related to COVID-19 confirmed or suspected infection).
Current Mortality Rate
As of April 17th, 2020, the CDC website displays the following stats for the United States:
- Total cases: 661,712 (660,430 confirmed; 1,282 probable)
- Total deaths: 33,049 (28,823 confirmed; 4,226 probable)
Yesterday's Mortality Rate
As of April 16th, 2020, the CDC website displays the following stats for the United States:
- Total cases: 632.548 (632,220 confirmed; 348 probable)
- Total deaths: 31,071 (26,930 confirmed; 4,141 probable)
Accuracy Scenarios
Here are some brief comments on scenarios that may affect the accuracy of the Mortality Rate and various models being used to inform decision making, by those citing cases and deaths as the rationale for various decisions:
- While in a perfect world such would be unthinkable ... Question: Are there incentives for some individuals or organizations to over-report or under-report cases and/or deaths as COVID-19 ?
- One example of such an incentive is the CARES Act that pays medical service providers more for COVID-19 cases, ranging from +15% or +20% (depending on source), which some would say motivates some organizations to over-report to recoup some of their financial losses from only being able to provide a limited scope of their typical revenue generating services.
- Another example of a possible cause of inaccurate reporting is for political reasons, as some may conclude their decision-making may be justified and their leadership perceived as positive ... if the numbers helped tell that story.
- Regardless of the potential motivations and the causes of inaccurate data, the attached spreadsheet is a simple means to view how inaccuracy in either direction (under-reported or over-reported) would impact mortality rate.
- As you will see, depending on what the COVID-19 Mortality Rate is compared to, inaccurate data may or may not have a material effect on the story someone is trying to tell.
- More I could say, but keeping this brief for now.